The 90 percent rule
The 90 percent rule is the often repeated claim that about nine in ten new traders lose their money within ninety days. Nobody has published the data behind it.
In depth
Treat the number as a warning, not a measurement. The exact figure moves around depending on who is quoting it, and the source is rarely given. What it points at is real enough: small accounts, big bets and no written rules run out of money fast.
The arithmetic is the part worth keeping. Risk 10 percent of a 1,000 dollar account on each trade and six losses in a row take 600 dollars off it. Risk 1 percent and the same six losses cost about 60 dollars. Same losing run, very different account. Survival is mostly a sizing decision, though how much is right for you stays a judgment call.
Why it matters
The rule gets quoted to scare people and then ignored. The useful part is what it implies about size. A trader who risks a tenth of the account per trade needs to be right almost every time. One bad week ends the account. A trader risking one percent can be wrong ten times and still be trading next month.
TraderLog imports your fills from Schwab, IBKR or a CSV file and shows max drawdown, win rate, average winner and average loser on one stats page. If your losers are big enough to end you, the numbers say so before the account does.
Frequently asked questions
No published study backs the exact number, but the pattern of new traders losing money quickly is well documented.
Risk a small, fixed share of the account per trade and write down your rules before the market opens.
Keep your 90 percent rule trades on the record in TraderLog
Trades import from Schwab and IBKR on their own, every day lands on a calendar with its P&L, and the day's entry sits beside it. Replay any trade on a TradingView chart. Free to start, no card.
Every trading morning at 8:40 ET our model draws the SPY, QQQ and IWM zones it expects to matter, on a TradingView chart, before the open. Where price reaches one, it has turned 74 percent of the time. Free, no account. See today's map