Expectancy
Expectancy is the average profit or loss you make per trade. It combines how often you win with how big your winners and losers are.
In depth
The sum is simple. Multiply your win rate by your average winner, then subtract your loss rate times your average loser. Win 55 percent of the time for 500 dollars and lose 45 percent of the time for 400 dollars: 0.55 times 500 is 275, 0.45 times 400 is 180, so you keep 95 dollars per trade on average.
That 95 dollars is an average across many trades, not a payout you collect. Any single trade is still a win or a loss. Expectancy only tells you which way the pile drifts once you have enough trades for the number to settle, which takes more like 100 than 10.
Why it matters
Win rate on its own tells you nothing. You can win 70 percent of your trades and still lose money if the three losers are bigger than the seven winners. Expectancy is the one number that says whether repeating what you did last month makes money or loses it.
TraderLog works out expectancy from your imported trades, alongside win rate, average winner, average loser and profit factor. The By tag table breaks the same numbers down per tag, so you can see which kind of trade carries the positive number and which drags it down.
Frequently asked questions
Yes. Over a small number of trades a losing run is normal, and oversized bets can end the account before the average arrives.
Around 100 gives a rough read. Under 30 and the number moves every time you add a trade.
Keep your Expectancy trades on the record in TraderLog
Trades import from Schwab and IBKR on their own, every day lands on a calendar with its P&L, and the day's entry sits beside it. Replay any trade on a TradingView chart. Free for 14 days, no card.
Every trading morning at 8:40 ET our model draws the SPY, QQQ and IWM zones it expects to matter, on a TradingView chart, before the open. Where price reaches one, it has turned 74 percent of the time. Free, no account. See today's map