Sizing up

There are two honest reasons to add size. One is that the setup is better than average: price is at a level that has held before, and your entry sits close enough to the stop that the dollar risk stays the same. The other is a decision made in advance, like raising your base size after a steady quarter.

The dishonest reason is the screen. You are green, you feel sharp, so the next one goes on double. Worse is doubling after a loss to win it back in one trade. That is the version that ends accounts, because it puts the biggest bet on the day you are least steady. Add in steps instead, once the level holds.

Size changes are where a decent month turns into a bad one. Ten small trades and one triple-size trade means one trade decides the month. If that trade was taken to recover a loss, the odds it was your best setup are poor. Keeping size flat until the record says otherwise is the boring answer.