Check twenty calls against the chart yourself
Every signal group posts winners. The question is what happened to the calls nobody screenshotted. You can answer it in half an hour with a chart and a calculator. Run the test on everyone, us included.
A real record can be checked line by line
A verifiable track record has properties you can test. Every call published with a timestamp that lands before the move it predicted. Winners and losers in the same list. Drawdowns visible as a sequence, so you can see the four losses in a row. Then decide whether you could sit through them. Nothing edited or deleted after the outcome was known. Results in R multiples or percent per trade rather than a photo of one account balance.
A screenshot of a green P&L fails all of that. It shows one account on one day, picked by the person showing it to you.
The strongest tell is what you cannot reach. If you cannot list the last hundred calls in order, the wins you saw were selected. A selected sample tells you about the selector.
These red flags end the check early
Some things let you stop reading. Only winners in the feed, with losses appearing as vague commentary about market conditions rather than as closed calls.
An accuracy percentage quoted with no average loser next to it. An 80 percent hit rate means nothing if the two losers give back more than the eight winners made. A record publishing hit rate alone leaves out the number that decides the outcome.
A record that starts in a convenient place. If the history begins months after the group did, ask what happened in the gap. Add countdown timers and closing-soon pricing. Operators with no real name on the calls. A chat where old messages can be edited or deleted. Any of those makes the history unusable as evidence, whatever the calls actually were.
Pull twenty consecutive calls and mark them yourself
Take twenty consecutive recent calls, chosen by date. Not twenty you liked. The most recent twenty, or every call from one named month.
For each one, write down the timestamp, ticker, direction, entry, stop and target. Open the chart at that timestamp. Confirm the price was where the call said when the call went out. A call posted at 10:14 quoting an entry that traded at 09:52 is a report of something that already happened.
Then mark the outcome yourself. Did the target print before the stop, reading the intraday chart in the order the prices actually came. Count winners and losers, add up the R multiples, and divide.
Twenty is enough to catch fabrication and selective posting. It is not enough to prove an edge. Anyone claiming a hundred trades proves theirs is overselling too.
Compute expectancy before you look at the win rate
Do the arithmetic yourself: win rate times average winner, minus loss rate times average loser. Say a service hits 70 percent, its winners average 0.5R and its losers average 1R. That is 0.7 times 0.5 minus 0.3 times 1, or 0.05R per trade before costs. Thin.
Then take out the friction. Commissions, spread on both sides, and the fills you will not get on a fast move. Ask what price the record assumes. Is it the price at publication, or the best price of the next minute? The difference between those two decides whether the number survives contact with your account.
TraderLog publishes the full record for its Trade with AI signals, losses included. Run this procedure on it before you act on a single call. Run it on anything else you pay for.
Work through this before you pay for anything
Half an hour, a chart, and a calculator. Stop at the first item that fails.
- Find the full list of calls in date order before reading any marketing page.
- Check that the record starts when the group started rather than later.
- Confirm losing calls sit in the same feed as the winners.
- Take twenty consecutive recent calls, chosen by date and not by outcome.
- Compare each timestamp against the chart to confirm the call preceded the move.
- Mark every outcome yourself from the intraday chart, in price order.
- Compute average winner and average loser in R rather than in dollars.
- Work out expectancy per trade, then subtract commissions and spread.
- Ask what fill price the record assumes and whether you could get it.
- Find the operator's real name and confirm the same person makes the calls.
- Check whether posts in the feed can be edited or deleted after the fact.
Frequently asked questions
Some are, and the honest ones make themselves easy to check. A group that publishes every call with a timestamp and shows its losers has handed you the evidence. One that will not show the last hundred calls has answered the question for you.
Twenty consecutive calls catches selective posting and back-dated timestamps. Deciding whether an edge is real takes far more than that, plus the average winner and average loser.
No. A 70 percent hit rate with winners half the size of losers still loses money. Ask for average winner, average loser and worst drawdown before you look at win rate.
Run the same check on TraderLog
TraderLog publishes its signal record in public, losers included, so you can check us the way you check anyone. On the journal side, your imported fills give win rate, profit factor and expectancy on trades you actually took.
Every trading morning at 8:40 ET our model draws the SPY, QQQ and IWM zones it expects to matter, on a TradingView chart, before the open. Where price reaches one, it has turned 74 percent of the time. Free, no account. See today's map